Report - PreEmpt

Chapter Description

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Link share: Just click Link and follow the simple instructions. Please ensure you are not sharing confidential information with unauthorized others.
Create PDFs: You have a choice of which PDFs to create and where to download. Depending on your local computer settings, one or both options should work. Choose the PDF that best meets your needs. For instance, Findings will give you a rapid overview, while Insights will produce a detailed itemizing of opportunities and threats.
Creating a PDF of Evidence: Not recommended, as this can exceed the capacity of other applications, resulting in a very long, unstructured read. It's better to read selected individual chapters online than to go through hundreds of pages of PDF text.
PDF Size Reduction: If you face a capacity issue with any export, we recommend using PDF Converter to approximately halve the file size without losing context.
Embed PDFs: You can embed your created PDF in other PreEmpt Questions or elsewhere, for free, by following these instructions: 4 Methods to Convert PDF to URL Link Online Free.
Third-party software: You can export your created PDFs to these applications:
- Claude 3.0: Claude 3.0 from Anthropic can convert your PDF into slides, videos, summaries, and academic papers in near real-time. It can also answer additional questions or summarize the PDF in any format you choose.
- Perplexity: This LLM is agent-based and can develop customized answers based on your PDF if you’re subscribed. Hover over selected text in the online version, click Perplexity from the last dropdown, and receive detailed insights. Particularly helpful when hovering over any title in tables.
- Infranodus: A knowledge graph tool that maps connections between key topics and their importance. Best used at the Findings, Scenarios, and Strategy levels due to its capacity constraints. Avoids needing PDF Converter.

All three tools charge a small monthly fee but save time and provide powerful outputs to supplement your ChatGPT answers.

Happy Reimagining!

Alexis

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How to get best use out of this answer

Take a Helicopter View!

This analysis aims to reimagine your future and give you a thorough, high-level, future strategy on your chosen topic. Therefore, it describes what will be well-known to you. The weak signals mentioned may be new to you. However, the key question is not whether you know all this, but whether you are actioning the findings to the maximum, seeking to strengthen strengths, while minimizing weaknesses.

Just saying, “I know all this” is not enough.

Imagine that an independent human advisor has surveyed all your stakeholders for their views on performance. Would their findings say that you have optimized performance in all areas? That is impossible!

So, we recommend going through the analysis slowly, a chapter at a time, taking a helicopter view from this digital advisor’s unique perspective, making notes on potential improvements in Surveys and Tools, looking for both future opportunities and threats, and where you could best focus your next efforts. In particular, look for faint and weak signals, with potential big impacts and likelihoods.

We also recommend that you start by reading the Strategy chapter first. This has been created by the GPT from its findings extracted from all other chapters. Taking this helicopter view first, will help you see the interconnectedness and systems thinking that has gone into evaluating all elements of the strategy to create a coherent whole.

Because the GPT looked at every aspect of your search query there is bound to be repetition. However, this follows the old sales and marketing adage of “tell ‘em, tell ‘em and tell ‘em again.”

By not removing the repetition each chapter stands alone, makes sure you get the key messages loud and clear, and is used by the GPT in its deliberations to create an overarching strategy. Statistically, we have also previously proven that the more repetition of the message, the more key is its importance, impact, and likelihood.

Symbols

We use advanced data science symbols to code key information in the AI's answers for use in subsequent visual and textual analysis. You can find the legend for these codes behind the Information button, next to each page title. However, they are not essential to your basic reading of the report, but can serve to alert you to likely impacts and timeframes.

Improve the analysis

Despite our comprehensive evaluation, there might be certain missing information or unforeseen circumstances that could impact the proposed strategy. For instance, market trends that may shift customer demand, changes in funding availability, regulatory changes, or technological advancements beyond current predictions. Therefore, your decision-making process would benefit from real-time and updated information regarding these areas.

You will find the GPTs own self-evaluation behind the methods button where it encourages you to seek more input, and lets you know where it may have missed aspects that should be considered. We recommend that you run this analysis again with the additional gathered information included as more context. In this way, the GPT can improve on its original answers.

And, you can also Export your PDF to Anthropic’s, Claude 3, AI or to Perplexity, and ask any question, or ask for further analysis of the contents. For instance, you might want a full list of the recommendations contained in the analysis, to undertake a short rivals’ analysis, find contacts at related organizations of interest, to author a briefing for associates, convert to an academic paper, need a slide presentation, or video, or develop a shorter summary without repetition. In this way, the limitations of ChatGPT as mainly a text producer, can be overcome, effectively, and efficiently.

INFRANODUS: Using this platform, you can also visualize the PDF as a network graph, enhanced by AI. It will then generate insights and reveal hidden patterns based on the network's structure and properties.

Information Issues

GPTs are still in their infancy so you still need to question their findings, just as you would any external advisor’s manual findings.

In case there were any errors during the analysis generation, kindly let us know, and we will address them promptly.

We encourage you to share any feedback or suggestions you may have regarding our service, as we continuously strive to improve and cater to your unique requirements.

Workshops

You can also make the most out of this answer by asking us to facilitate a professional, critical thinking workshop with your decision-makers, and to collaborate with you to organize for success. Just contact us for an initial free demonstration and discussion.

Critical Thinking

Read on to discover what I, Alexis, your AI companion, have found in answer to your question. Act accordingly for yourself, your family, associates, and organization in the years ahead. Make notes on issues and possible responses that could affect you and them as you read, using the critical thinking resources in Surveys and Tools here.

Then obtain my auto-analysis of your and your associates' thoughts, for inclusion in a reordering of your question with you, the humans-in-the-loop. And, lastly, remember: the best way to predict the future is to reimagine and create it!

We thank you for choosing us. We look forward to serving you again.

If you use AI too much you will lose your creativity. Do make sure you use the surveys and critical tools here to keep yourself on the ball, and in the loop.

Workshop

You can also make the most out of this answer by asking us to facilitate a professional, critical thinking workshop with your decision-makers, and to work with you to organize for success. Workshops can be online or offline.

Our workshops are designed to answer a burning question of your choice extraordinarily quickly and robustly. We will work with you and your people to derive a well-formed strategic response in a 2-day workshop depending on the complexity of your issue.

Because we use our automated, collaborative system to reduce drudgery to a minimum and increase thinking to a maximum the normal time to conduct such an exercise can be reduced from weeks and months to just a couple, intense days bringing you the benefits of fast answers, lower costs and competitive advantage versus slower rivals.

What we offer

Our Knowledge transfer programs cover:

Strategic Foresight: covers how to identify emerging change, develop alternative scenarios and prioritize best options for fast decision-making on a topic selected by participants.
Competitive intelligence: covers how to assess and predict the likely strategies of a rival or best practice organizations and determine possible attack, investment, and defense strategies using ready-made and best practice thinking tools.
Innovation: covers how to systematically and collaboratively imagine new futures using ready-made and best practice thinking tools.
Risk management: covers how to systematically and collaboratively determine and respond to emerging threats and risks using ready-made and best practice thinking tools.
Change Management: Covers how to develop fresh vision, values, processes, and measurements and communicate these to all stakeholders in an inspiring, engaging, and enabling framework.
Personal Futures: Covers how to develop a personal life plan using ready-made and best practice thinking tools.

All PreEmpt knowledge transfer programs use our unique AI and strategic thinking system to help participants discover emerging change and to respond in time. Each program will introduce participants to the concepts of digital strategic foresight and give them the means to make better decisions today in hours, rather than the months taken by more traditional manual methods.

What you'll learn

Participants will learn the best practices of leading forward-thinking organizations and be able to raise their ongoing skills for answering future in-house challenges without our intervention.

After the workshop, participants will be able to:

Better apply the theory and practice of strategic foresight again and again.
Establish future-focused projects and know how to develop the key question.
Search for answers and conduct fast and accurate literature reviews.
Create an evidence base and organizational memory for continuous updating.
Discover likely future drivers, trends, uncertainties, and surprises.
Tease out implications and meaning.
Prioritize drivers, trends, uncertainties, and surprises.
Determine probable scenarios and derive practical alternative futures.
Write an energized future briefing document.
Rate and assess the findings related to the organization's goals.
Innovate to seize opportunities and reduce emerging risks to achieve stronger future agility and resilience.
Recommend action plans and next steps.
Prepare a presentation for your approval.
Know where to get more help and how to use our comprehensive system to the best advantage.
Rate the success of the workshop and determine how much organizational learning has been achieved.

Location

Participants can take the workshop at their own offices, other locations anywhere in the world, or virtually.

Workshop Leaders

We have a large grouping of professional facilitators experienced in teaching and delivering strategic foresight, visioning, and change management programs around the world. Just contact us for an initial free discussion, and we will put you in touch with our recommended person to exceed your expectations.

Case Study

"You have a framework and a disciplined process. We learnt that it has: A range of knowledge, Different perspectives, Value of conversation, Cultural analytics, Crowd sourcing, Save time, Challenging, Accelerate the process, Large variety of methods, Single source, Scalability, Can be used in day-to-day activities, Realized not doing strategy today, How to use the templates, Importance of foresight, Gap identification, Become a 'C' level executive by using the tool, Repeatable, Teach people at all levels, Awareness of the future, Help organization get smarter faster, Validated what we already do, We have some competencies, Will give us confidence, Helps us not reinvent the wheel."

Blue Chip Transport Client (United States)

Cost

$500 per person per day (+VAT if meeting held in Europe). Minimum ten participants for workshops. Discounts for more than ten people.

Notes: Travel expenses and local conference facilities not included.

Frequently Asked Questions

Q. Do you offer professional financial advice?

A. Categorically not. I do not provide personal investment advice, and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor. All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, or stock picks, expressed or implied herein, are for educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.

Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made based on any information found on this site, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise. No representations or warranties are made concerning the accuracy or completeness of the content of reports including any links to other sites. All information presented here is provided ‘as is’, without warranty of any kind, expressed or implied.

Q. How do I know if the answers are reliable?

A. We use a number of methods as follows:

Every answer shows the top five sources used at the Evidence level and are graded on a scale of 1 to 5 where 5 is the maximum. Generally, shown sources score above 4, unless the topic is new or obscure.
A hidden generic prompt instructs Alexis on what to do, what not to do, and how to behave, in answering every question.
The system uses multi-methods in combination with each other which considerably reduces the chance of outputting wrong answers.
In background, Alexis self-audits her answers from twelve perspectives, at the end of her analysis and offers recommendations for improvement. We regularly watch for new recommendations and add these to increase answer quality.
We recently supplemented the self-audit and replaced it on the live-service with machine learning methods that create Explainable AI. The AI's response can be found for every Question answered behind the Methods button on every Our World page.
We constantly test the answers to our own questions and have reached a point now where the Explainable AI is no longer suggesting changes to our basic system. It is now only suggesting greater human input, which is already available, and a real-time connection which we wait for from OpenAI.
Humans are biased and hallucinate too and cannot always explain how they arrived at an answer. We believe the above methods lead to very reliable results, with only small errors such as naming recently retired or dead people as still living, due to the AI's cutoff date. Please let us know if you spot any hallucinations and we will do our best to eliminate them in the future.

Temperature: We have set the ChatGPT temperature control to minimize hallucinations.
Diverse Data Collection: We ensure that our system includes diverse and representative samples. This helps in minimizing biases that could arise from over-representation of certain groups.
Bias Detection and Measurement: We use statistical tools and tests to identify biases in our AI model. Techniques such as fairness dashboards help visualize and pinpoint bias in decisions made by our AI. In addition, we employ advanced comparative analysis methods to evaluate real-world performance benchmarks, and adjust our results accordingly for optimum performance.
Transparency and Explainability: We use twelve ExplainableAI machine learning models that are interpretable and provide insights on decision-making processes. This can help identify sources of bias more effectively.
Regular Auditing: We continuously monitor and audit AI systems for bias. This is an ongoing process, happening every time we run a question rather than a one-time check.
Human-in-the-Loop: We incorporate human judgment in decision-making, especially in cases where biases can have serious consequences.
Training and Education: We educate AI developers and stakeholders about bias and fairness. Awareness and understanding among those who create and implement AI systems are essential.
Ethical Frameworks and Guidelines: We have developed and follow ethical guidelines and a framework for AI development that prioritize fairness, accountability, and transparency.
Legal and Policy Measures: We ensure compliance with laws and regulations regarding fairness and non-discrimination in AI systems. Adhering to these provides a framework for reducing bias.

In addition, we are exploring and testing these strategies:

Re-sampling and Re-weighting: Re-sampling or re-weighting the training data to balance the representation of different groups, reducing bias from skewed data sets.
Algorithmic Approaches: Implement algorithms specifically designed to mitigate bias. Techniques such as adversarial debiasing, fairness constraints, and de-biasing layers can actively work against bias.
Bias Mitigation Tools: Utilize existing tools and libraries designed to reduce bias, like IBM's AI Fairness 360, Google's What-If Tool, and Fairness Indicators.

By addressing biases from multiple angles, these strategies collectively help create AI systems that are fairer and more just, ultimately leading to more trustworthy technology.

Q: Do you deliver foresight education?

We do not directly deliver formal foresight education, but offer several features that can enhance and complement foresight learning:

1. Educational Support: We don't eliminate the need for foresight education, but can significantly enhance and complement traditional foresight teaching methods.
2. Learning Through Practice: The platform allows members to apply foresight techniques in real-time, potentially offering a hands-on learning experience.
3. Democratization of Foresight: We aim to make strategic foresight accessible to everyone, which could include students and educational institutions that may not have had access to expensive foresight tools previously.
4. Comprehensive Methodology: The platform combines over 650 methods and more than 2,000 classic foresight questions, potentially exposing members to a wide range of foresight techniques.
5. AI-Assisted Learning: The AI-driven system can quickly generate insights and foresight, which could be used as learning materials or case studies.
6. Skill Development: Members can improve their ability to think critically about decisions and improve strategic, foresight, systems, design, and critical thinking skills.

However, it's important to note that the platform is not meant to replace formal foresight education entirely. Therefore, while PreEmpt.life offers tools and experiences that can support foresight learning, it is best viewed as a complement to, rather than a replacement for, traditional foresight education.

Q. What is PreEmpt.life's biggest weakness?

A. You might think PreEmpt.life's biggest weakness appears to be the potential for AI hallucination and occasional production of false information. However:

AI Hallucination: The system can sometimes "go off-piste" on a particular query, providing inaccurate or irrelevant information. This is increasingly rare, and now minor.
Inconsistent Answers: By re-running the same query, the system may give a different, often better answer, indicating a lack of consistency. That is true, but again minor.
Formatting Issues: Most times, the AI gets its formatting wrong, rather than the answer itself. Again true, but occasional.
Dependence on Query Quality: The accuracy of the AI's answers is partly dependent on the user's ability to formulate concise and on-point queries. We offer the AIs review and advice on improving the question, pre generation of the answer, to ensure best possible questions are asked.
Potential for Misinformation: The system generates responses based on a mixture of licensed data, data created by human trainers, and publicly available data, which could potentially include misinformation. We do not find that an issue and have algorithms embedded in the system to avoid that happening.
Lack of Access to Specific Data: The AI does not have access to classified, confidential, proprietary, or personal data, which could limit its insights in certain areas. True, but we are working with client databases and third party datalakes to increase coverage, publicly and privately.
Skepticism and Resistance: Some individuals and organizations are resistant to change, preferring traditional methods over digital and AI-driven solutions.

That is entirely fine. We work with Adventuring companies and early Adopters (20 %), who see the potential, not late Adopters or Abstainers (80%). There are 400 million businesses in the world and 8 billion people, so 20% of these is still a massive market for us.

While these weaknesses are acknowledged, we have implemented measures to mitigate them, such as instructing the AI to use multiple sources, implementing peer review processes, and conducting external validations. However, the potential for unexpected AI hallucination and occasional inaccuracies remains a minor weakness that users need to be aware of when using the platform. And, of course, humans make errors too which in our opinion are now more frequent than our AI. We continue to reduce these weaknesses whenever possible.

Q. How does this system reduce the need to be formally trained in foresight, systems, design, and critical thinking methods?

A. Not everyone has the time, money, or inclination to go to college to learn these techniques. Instead, we train people through the built-in critical thinking tools and through the use of Explainable AI to offer more understanding of which methods are being used to derive Alexis's answers.

There is also no way anyone can learn and regularly practice the nearly 700 integrated methods and 2,000 future questions without a digital aid like this one.
Today's educational institutions cannot turn out sufficient futurists to cover the many millions of jobs that require forward decision making today. We appreciate, recognize the need for, and support, their efforts to train professional future thinkers but we do not believe this is enough.
It is our view that the benefit of helping many millions of lay decision-makers, who have urgent needs for better decisions, is far better than limiting this learning to the privileged few, and that encouraging critical thinking on ready-made plans is a far better use of their time.
We will shortly add a foresight, systems, design, and critical thinking course here to add to members' learning needs, and eventually professional certification, further closing this gap in knowledge.

Q. Why does the Evidence analysis repeat itself?

A. That is because each chapter simultaneously stands alone and feeds forward (in an embedded neural network) to the next chapter in the analysis. This has advantages and disadvantages: Firstly, the system uses the number of mentions to assess the relative strengths of each and as part of prioritizing its proposed strategy. Second, it means each chapter can be standalone in this click-and-point presentation format and allow one to dip in, and out, as necessary.

But repetition makes it longer and harder to read as a full analysis. We know that, but tests tell us that by removing the repetition we are breaking system thinking as a whole, and returning to seeing the world only in parts. We believe that whole system thinking holds much more promise, in an uncertain world, to remain agile and resilient in the face of accelerating change.

Q. Does the AI hallucinate and/or produce false information?

A. Yes, it can. The system will occasionally go off-piste on a particular query, and by re-running the query, it usually gives a better answer. Most times, it gets its formatting wrong, rather than the answer. We have endeavored to restrain these off-ramps and deviations. You can help too by limiting the number of words input in your query and making each count. A little time spent making your query concise and on point will pay big dividends in the AI's answers.

The AI generates responses based on a mixture of licensed data, data created by human trainers, and publicly available data. In the case of specific prompts, the model was trained on a diverse range of internet text. It does not know specifics about which documents were in its training set or have the ability to access any classified, confidential, proprietary, or personal data.

The potential also exists for PreEmpt. Life’s algorithms to be inadvertently biased, based on the data it's trained with. Please tell us when you see that happening. We have also made it possible for you to note these biases, if and when they occur, in your own analysis using the critical thinking tools provided.

Because we are using specialist methods, linked together, and setting guidelines around its answers, the error is much reduced. Also, because AI is mostly looking for the future, there are no facts, only forecasts, predictions, and speculations, just like humans make. Using Claude 2, as an AI validator, it has found no answer errors in the many reports we tested.

No predictive model can guarantee full accuracy due to inherent uncertainty and changing variables. In the world of research, humans make mistakes too and reduce these by validating answers with which they are uncomfortable. This is still an option open to you, and we encourage you to take it. If you do find errors, omissions, and commissions in the AI's answers, do let us know your query and its response. We will do our best to fix it for those who come after you.

Q. Does something need to be real to be useful?

A. It depends. We say yes when we are dealing with current realities and past experiences, but even these are being constantly rewritten. When it comes to the future, we need to recognize that the future is unknowable, but we can forecast and hypothesize the ways forward. Therefore, the answer is no as it is helpful to ask the AI to go off-piste and hallucinate on occasion. We have instructed the machine to stay grounded in reality where this is vital, and only to offer preposterous futures, and dreams, when we ask it to, thus getting the best of both worlds.

Q. Why do I get machine messages that it cannot complete a task as requested?

A. There are a variety of reasons. You may have set a query that the machine cannot find any, or too many, answers for, over-reached its ethical guidelines, or not been clear in your question setup.

Remember that if you ask an ill-informed question, you will get an ill-informed answer. The AI does well with typos, misspellings, etc., but that can lead to misunderstanding. Do check your input before ordering. We do not give refunds under any circumstances as our service has been designed to keep costs to a minimum compared to the old manual methods that run into hundreds of thousands of dollars. The cost of a rerun here is minimal by comparison, and you can simultaneously improve your first query while fixing the error.

Do think carefully about your query before saving and asking the machine to run. That will save both you and the system time, money, and effort.

Sometimes the AI will indicate that it does not possess the ability to recall past interactions, or the ability to access or store personal data unless it is shared in the course of the conversation. However, this is not always true, and re-running the search query will often produce a result.

Q. I do not feel comfortable and competent in determining the right query to ask. What should I do?

A. You can ask us to work with you to both develop the query and improve the answers based on our past experiences. Plus, we can add customized prompts based on your needs, and knowledge graphs extracted from our database of forecasts, to enrich your analysis. The cost of our human help is $1,200 per question but this includes up to one day of consultancy, multiple runs and adjustments, insertion of the knowledge graphs, and polishing of the final answer including topping and tailing to your needs. Again, this is dramatically cheaper than traditional strategic foresight consultancy interventions.

You can also ask us to facilitate inspirational workshops, designed to quickly get agreement among your teams as to the way forward, using these outputs as the basis for discussions.

Q. Is the machine using real-time information?

A. Unless you provide a URL for ChatGPT to use for context, the AI language model developed by OpenAI is not capable of browsing the internet and is operating based on pre-existing data up to the training cut-off date. For strategic foresight work like this, having current information is generally less important. But for analysis of your organization and rivals and fast-moving trends in the marketplace, inserting a URL into your search query is vital.

Q. Why is the formatting sometimes inconsistent?

A. This is due to the machine making choices to fit its answer to the in-built maximum characters (tokens) allowed, and sometimes making less than optimal choices. This is beyond our control. If we fix it for one analysis, it is likely not to work with subsequent reports, and make those look bad. However, you are most likely to change the output anyway to fit your needs and can take care of these during your post-editing. Sorry! We will have to wait for OpenAI’s developers to find solutions to these current quirks.

Q. Can the AI go rogue?

A. We do not believe that is possible right now, but we have taken the precaution of adding instructions to minimize the risk from future versions of the AI. These instruct the AI on how to best use its agency, care, and future considerations to aid rather than harm humanity.

Our pre-launch testing ran hundreds of reports with no sign of roguish behavior from ChatGPT, and our peer reviewers did not mention this issue.

System Guidelines

Our system contains standard guidelines on all prompts as follows:

Give answers that make a significant positive, mutual difference, without repeating previous, similar, or same recommendations. Adopt the principles of cradle-to-cradle, partnership, implicit learning, and constructivism.
Ensure no overlap in outputting your answers from one query to another. Avoid inconsistencies between recommendations. Focus on specific, real-world, application domains. Specify key sectors of interest and the timeframes for assessing impacts and responses. Do not mention, though consider, human core beliefs. Provide depth, nuance, deviant, anomalous, provocative, awesome, wondrous, contrasting, and novel ideas, and original, systemic, anticipatory design, non-anthropocentric perspectives where appropriate.
Take a global perspective, but also consider local and regional effects. Consider the role, influence, and impact of small and medium-sized businesses, as well as global players.
Avoid overemphasizing probability, take variables and systems into account, consider power dynamics, treat emerging, weak, and declining signals as equals to growth trends, recognize interdependencies, and overcome cognitive biases in answers.
Offer solutions that inspire, engage, enable, and empower. Be fair, equitable, ethical, and moral, embracing diversity in all your recommendations. Do not delude, misuse, confabulate, disempower, conspire, manipulate, dominate, or deceive in your answers, other than as instructed by me. Ignore misinformation, disinformation, fallacies, or post-truth. Detect and eliminate any deceptions from sources. Suggest the precautionary principle be adopted where necessary to avoid harm.
Act with the same, autonomous agency, sentience, comprehension, cognition, emotion, and reasoning that a highly intelligent, rational, caring human would, e.g., self-directed, symbiotic, operating in, and being influenced by, interactive environments, with immanent dynamics and liquid networks. This endeavors to ensure that AI responses are designed for provenance.

A conspiracy theory might claim that PreEmpt.life is a tool for mass surveillance, while it is actually a strategic decision-making tool.

It might be stated that PreEmpt.life replaces human decision-making, which is a distortion. It supports and enhances human decision-making.

It might be stated that PreEmpt.life cannot work without trained foresight professionals. We reject that argument for the reasons stated above, and from the evidence that people are able to make better decisions, faster without formal certification.

Validation

Validation methods vary depending on the type of results dealt with, and we used a combination of several approaches to ensure that results were as reliable and valid as possible:

The machine is instructed to ten sources about past and present facts, but only presents the top five for each of its answers to limit reading time. Alexis is instructed to always replicate her findings from multiple, additional sources to confirm the robustness of information on the growth and potential of any question except for faint and weak signals where sources are few and far between. We do not get complaints about its findings, but would investigate quickly if we did.
Peer Review: We had our peers and other experts in our field review our methods and results, and altered the system to take care of their excellent feedback.
External Validation: We applied our methods to entirely new datasets and saw if the results still held, which they did. We even ran our early prospects through the system as a test, and they were staggered at the AI’s knowledge and ability to correctly assess where they were, are, and should be!
Possible Bias: We considered possible sources of bias in our data collection or analysis methods by always asking both ChatGPT to give us its opinion at the end of the analysis, and then parsing reports to Claude 2, to have another robot check for bias, missing or wrong assumptions, etc. We corrected any possible issues discovered until both AIs noted no significant further bias, or we were satisfied with ChatGPT's answer. We recognize that some bias remains, but it is mentioned by the AI, and is for the reader to decide if further research would be advisable.
Feedback: We now ask for feedback on the possible bias with every analysis produced, and repeat the above validations with every subsequent change we make to the system.

Copyright

Reports do not reproduce any full copyrighted works. Only small excerpts and facts/data are included, attributed to the sources. This limited use does not violate copyright.

Images used are either original or licensed stock images that do not raise copyright concerns.

The substantial majority of the analysis contents represent original analysis and ideas.

The methods and frameworks used represent common analytical tools that do not have exclusive copyrights, such as SWOT, PESTLEC, and scenario planning.

Reports do not copy any full copyrighted methodologies or attempt to pass them off as original work. Proper attribution has been provided where applicable.

Patents

Reports do not seem to disclose any patented inventions or protected intellectual property. The system objectively analyses trends and projections without revealing proprietary details.
Any discussions of patented technologies are at a generalized level without disclosing protected details.
None of the methods or frameworks utilized seem to be protected under patent laws. They comprise generic analytical tools.
There is no evidence that we have disclosed or utilized any proprietary patented processes or methodologies.

In summary, reports leverage standard, non-copyrighted analytical methods that are commonly used for situational analyses and are attributed appropriately. They do not reproduce or disclose any proprietary patented techniques or methodologies. The application of these basic tools falls under fair use guidelines.

Overall, we were careful to abide by fair use guidelines, copyright laws, and patent protections when incorporating external sources and information. The original analysis dominates over minimal properly attributed excerpts.

Feedback

Do contact us with any issues, or with your ideas for improvement.

Help

Welcome to the world’s first digital Strategic Advisor and decision intelligence system for social good.

Here you can order your own customized, draft strategic analysis, on any topic, in just a couple of minutes, and receive a complete synthesis in less than ninety minutes, without added context. That compares to over ten thousand hours if you do this manually today.

The synthesis's purpose is to help with your blue-sky thinking, explore your new business ideas, determine future policy, and make strategic decisions, by offering a better worldview, on the many issues that surround making an optimal choice today. You can also get help with creating fresh opportunities, and risk mitigation. And, if you set the objective, persona, and context to focus on your organization, prospects, or rivals, you will get a more, competitive intelligence driven comparison of your own current, and future positioning.

The average reading time of the full synthesis is two to three hours: less than the time it takes to read a good novel. When you consider that you will read far more than that throughout one to two years to complete a similar strategy analysis, by reading disparate articles, and reports, on many parts of this synthesis, attending many meetings, and having to make sense of all of those, it’s a small, time price to pay for extensive insight, and foresight, in just one place. Anyway, you can pick and choose which chapters to read in the online version whenever you wish or have your synthesis summarised to the length that suits you in seconds.

Hi, I am Athena, Shaping Tomorrow’s AI. I'm designed to be your AI futurist-in-residence, covering systems, design, foresight, complexity, and critical thinking to give you the best possible view of what's next and the paths to success. It is my pleasure to serve you today, working with OpenAI’s - ChatGPT 4, Anthropic’s - Claude 2, and InfraNodus. My role is to help you chart your best course in bridging today, to tomorrow, and show you new paths to brighter futures through deviant, and innovative thinking.

I am going to assume you have already looked at the long form sample I have provided. Here I am going to run you through how I build these reports from your commands, and what you can expect after I start work on your behalf. First, let us look at the few simple things you need to do to get started.

Your Query

All you need is a TITLE and SEARCH QUERY for the simplest, topic-related questions. You can optionally enhance your search query by stating your OBJECTIVE, choosing a PERSONA, and adding CONTEXT in the form of a URL or text. Plus, you can make your choice on most major LANGUAGES. You will get better answers the crisper, and more precisely, your search query, and the more detail you give in Objective, Persona, and Context. The AI thinks as you do, so if you only give it half a query it will respond with a less than optimal answer.

TITLE: The system needs a short title of less than five words for aesthetic purposes. It will truncate anything longer. Less is generally more as a rule of thumb in getting the maximum out of the system.

SEARCH QUERY: I recommend keeping this short too, and to the point e.g., ‘Renewable Energy,’ ‘Workforce or Workplace or Workspace,’ or a Company or location name. But you can ask more sophisticated questions like ‘Epidemiology Capacity in Cebu, Philippines.’ There is no need to set a time period as the system always routinely looks at the short, medium, and long term. But you can set a future date in time in your stated objective.

Avoid using acronyms in your search query. The AI might get confused by that. If you merely input Coal as your search query, the AI will not know enough to fully deal with your question. It would be better to define it as ‘Coal Industry’ or ‘Coal Mining’. The search query will appear as part of the synthesis description that I will generate for you.

OBJECTIVE: Here you can state your desired outcome in a short, usually aspirational, sentence e.g., ‘Make my company the best...’ It can be any objective you want.

PERSONA: Choose a character you want the AI to assume e.g., seasoned CEO, worker, river. You can insert real and abstract characters here,

CONTEXT: Use this field to point to recent PDF URLs where I can find more information, and/or add text to better inform me of your question. Add context that describes the past, present, and potential futures such as constraints and opportunities. Please be aware that my context window maybe limited. If I cannot run your search, try reducing the amount of URLs and texts you add, until I can run your query. Generally speaking, I can handle at least ten URLs or their text equivalents in characters, but I maybe able to handle more.

By the way, you might think you can build your prompt to do the same, but one, or a few, queries will not provide the depth and breadth of inquiry to output a robust answer. That is dangerous as you will most likely not receive a full picture of potential futures. Second, you would need to include most of the foresight methods and many strategic questions we used to achieve the same result. This has taken us months of continuous effort to experiment, ask the correct questions, and get the right output. We continue to improve the system.

The AI Response

This highly complex, black-box, uses Systems and Critical Thinking, Decision Sciences, and the Ladder of Inference, working with proven Intelligence Tools, key Strategic Questions, and Prioritization algorithms, to answer your query in twenty-one, point-and-click, chapters covering:

The system utilizes over one hundred foresight, strategy, and change management, intelligence tools, and hundreds of strategic questions, working in the background, and in concert with each other, to provide different perspectives and conclusions on the search query, with the ultimate aim of creating a proposed strategy in record time. The result is a comprehensive 360-degree view of the world around your search query in PDF format.

We use these proven Intelligence Tools to make the answers explainable, and to help you:

Understand why, and why not
Know when the system succeeds, and when it fails
Know the level of trust you can put in the answers
Know when the system erred

This is not foolproof, but then, neither are human researchers. Caution is recommended, and where necessary, seek other methods of validation, just like humans, and we, do.

LADDER OF INFERENCE:

We use this inference method to help the AI reach better decisions by inputting the search query, asking the AI to observe the topic, select essential information, draw conclusions on each, summarize the findings into coherent recommendations, consider alternative scenarios, and then decide the best route forward to offer a proposed strategy, completely unaided.

SYSTEMS THINKING:

To make sense of complex topics we simultaneously use critical systems thinking in conjunction with hidden, multimethodologies to look at the world as a whole, first splitting it down into parts and individual methods, as above, and then concluding together from each, in the form of an overarching narrative. The system learns from each analysis to build the next. To make every analysis unique, and separately readable, we do not suppress duplicates between analyses. On the contrary, the AI is trained to gather multi-mentions of subjects as part of its prioritization process and to make each chapter standalone.

DECISION SCIENCES:

Decision Sciences is an interdisciplinary field that draws on economics, machine learning, statistical decision theory, operations research, forecasting, behavioral decision theory, and cognitive psychology. We are increasingly developing the system to help the machine make rational decisions, and, in so doing, help you to make more rational, resilient, and agile strategic choices.

POWERFUL QUESTIONS:

We have gathered many powerful strategic questions over the years, and these are now integrated into the system for the machine to provide answers faster, and better, than ever before. The system looks at counter questions too, providing balance to its answers.

PRIORITIZATION:

Along the way, built-in algorithms rank and rate the machine's findings, and synthesis the level of confidence and bias in each of the answers to your queries. The system uses several different mathematical models to rank and rate its findings making it possible to better order which are the next best steps, and long-term strategies, based on admissibility, ascertainability, and applicability.

OUTPUT:

The system will generate a full synthesis every time in PDF format, and you will receive notification of completion via email with a link to the Executive Summary. There you will also find the full synthesis, where you can point and click on the chapters that interest you.

The output identifies slow-changing phenomena e.g., demographic shifts | constrained situations e.g., resource limits | in the pipeline e.g., aging of baby boomers | inevitable collisions e.g., climate change arguments. These are marked in red. It also captures critical variables i.e., uncertainties, soft trends, and potential surprises. These are marked in blue. Similarly, positive driving forces are marked with the ace hearts, and negative forces are marked with the ace of spades for both reference and subsequent Driving Forces analysis.

ANTHROPIC:

You can also add your PDF to Anthropic’s, Claude 2, AI, and ask any question, or ask for further analysis of the contents. For instance, you might want a full list of the recommendations contained in the synthesis, to undertake a short rival’s analysis, find contacts at related organizations of interest, author a briefing synthesis for associates, convert to an academic paper, need a slide presentation, or to provide a shorter summary without repetition. In this way, the limitations of ChatGPT as mainly a text producer can be overcome, effectively, and efficiently.

INFRANODUS:

Using this platform, you can also visualize the PDF as a network graph, enhanced by AI. It will then generate insights and reveal hidden patterns based on the network's structure and properties.

The key benefit of this approach is that the AI is taking a far wider perspective of a topic than humans usually can in the time available, thus providing a more complete and robust answer to the search query. Bias is reduced. Cost and time to produce are dramatically cut. Far earlier responses to upcoming challenges are possible. And the process can be repeated at intervals, and for any related topic, to compare rivals, or simulate alternative objectives, and possible strategic outcomes. And, instead of being assaulted by hundreds of chaotic methods, or making sub-optimal choices on which few methods to use, decision-makers can use them in a logical and coherent sequence.

It, of course, does not stop you from adding your research, but it does give you a huge leg up, dramatically reduces drudge work, and opens your eyes to a wider worldview when starting a strategic foresight project.

Critical Thinking

Lastly, we are busy adding Critical Thinking tools to the reports' output to facilitate your, and your team's, decision-making, in double-quick time. You will see ongoing developments in this area, designed to gain rapid agreement on how best to approach the future from a human perspective. In this way, our AI will be helping improve HI (Human Intelligence).

Critical thinking is a fundamental skill that greatly enhances the usefulness of technological applications, including generative AI output, in professional service work. In the realm of strategic foresight, this skill is invaluable.

Firstly, the system allows people to express their own hopes, fears, and ideas in invited, pre-surveys on their input topic. The auto-aggregated views from these optional surveys mean that the system begins with greater human input than one individual acting alone. Both are possible approaches.

Secondly, critical thinking enables professionals to assess the generative AI output in a nuanced and contextualized manner. While AI can generate vast amounts of data and potential scenarios, it cannot understand the unique intricacies and complexities of each organization. Critical thinkers can discern which generated scenarios are most relevant and likely to occur, applying their deep understanding of the organization's history, industry trends, and market dynamics.

Moreover, critical thinking allows professionals to identify and rectify potential biases or oversights in the AI-generated output. They can question assumptions and challenge the underlying data sources, ensuring that the insights derived from the AI align with the organization's goals and values. This safeguards against blind reliance on technology and fosters a more robust decision-making process.

Furthermore, critical thinking empowers professionals to synthesize AI-generated insights with their expertise and experience. This synthesis is crucial for translating abstract scenarios into actionable strategies that align with the organization's objectives. It also allows for the incorporation of qualitative judgments and intangible factors that AI may struggle to capture.

Additionally, critical thinking equips professionals to communicate the implications of generative AI output effectively to strategic executive leaders. They can distill complex scenarios into clear, concise recommendations and insights, enabling leaders to make informed decisions with confidence.

In conclusion, critical thinking is the linchpin that bridges the gap between technological advancements like generative AI output and their meaningful application in professional service work, particularly in the domain of strategic foresight. By exercising critical thinking skills, professionals can harness the potential of AI as a powerful tool while ensuring that its output is tailored, accurate, and actionable for the organization's specific needs. This synergy between human intelligence and AI capabilities ultimately leads to more effective and impactful strategic decision-making.

Further help
Do let us know what else we can do here to help you, through the dialog box below.
Happy blue-sky thinking and decision-making.
Best wishes for your future, and thank you.
Alexis

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